IS A 25% CORPORATION TAX RATE REALLY AN ATTACK ON GROWTH?
BLOG 245
IS A 25% CORPORATION
TAX RATE REALLY AN ATTACK ON GROWTH?
The second is by John Longworth, who tells us that, “A
radical rise in corporation tax would be an attack on innovation, investment
and growth”. Mr Longworth is described
as an entrepreneur, but his CV on Wikipedia inexplicably ignores the business
or businesses that he created and tells me only that he was Director-General of
the British Chambers of Commerce from September 2011 to March 2016, a Brexit
Party MEP from July 2019 until December 2019 and a media commentator and writer
since then. He also seems to be involved
with several think tanks. He believes
that “the psychological anti-profit, anti-growth signal of a radical increase
[in corporation tax] could be much more damaging than is imagined. If profitability is a prerequisite for innovation,
investment and growth, raising corporation tax is an attack on all of them”.
Perhaps my problem is that I cannot see why
profitability should be a prerequisite of any of those. Pre-Trump, the US had a federal corporate tax
rate of up to 38% with most States and many cities adding their own corporate
tax rate on top. That does not seem to
have deterred Apple, Microsoft, Starbucks, Amazon and many others from
innovating in the US. Indeed, tax has
little effect on profitability, as it only applies once profits have
arisen. It may affect investment
decisions of profitable companies, but I doubt that even then it is a major
factor.
Mr Longworth also tells me that “What the Chancellor
does now with corporation tax could well determine the outcome of [that 2024]
election”. Personally, I doubt that
corporation tax is even on the agenda of the bulk of the electorate. They are much more worried about housing,
inflation, childcare and employment! I
certainly agree that reducing corporation tax will determine the outcome of the
election, although not in the way that Mr Longworth envisages; I think that
most electors would see it as favouring business over working people, so it
would virtually guarantee a Labour landslide!
Back to Mr Radford.
I looked up his Centre for Brexit Policy paper, “The Case for Low
Corporate Taxation: Lessons from the International Pharmaceutical
Industry”. The thesis of this seems to
be that Ireland’s pharma industry has grown rapidly whilst those of both the UK
and the US have declined. He notes that
Ireland has had a 12.5% corporate tax rate since 2003 and seems to conclude
from this that low Irish taxation is the reason for this change.
Statisticians warn that care needs to be taken not to
confuse causation with correlation. The
fact that the Irish pharma industry has grown during a period of low taxation
does not mean that the tax rate has caused the growth. There is little or nothing in the paper to
suggest that it has done so. Indeed, it
is illogical to suppose that it has. If
a businessman is deciding where to locate a factory, one would expect the
dominant considerations to be the availability of labour, the general business
environment and the ease of export to the EU.
Ireland scores highly on all of these.
It is only when faced with two countries that both meet all of those
requirements that I would expect tax rates to come into the decision. But Mr Radford seems to regard the rate of
tax as the dominant consideration.
I am also not convinced that he actually understands
the pharma industry, because he tells us that “A tax policy that encourages
UK-based research but fails to encourage UK-based manufacturing risks seeing
practically all the benefits of that research go offshore, including tax
revenue from UK-based business. Spending
on research of itself only creates jobs in research: nothing else follows
automatically”. That is correct only if
one sees the role of business as to create jobs. Because what follows automatically from
successful UK pharmaceutical research is UK patients.
One only needs to compare the prices of generic drugs
(primarily drugs for which the patent has expired) with the price of branded
drugs (those under patent or for which confidence in the brand has been created
during the lifetime of the patent) to realise that the manufacturing profit is low. The most significant return is from the
exploitation of the patent. In other
words, where R & D is carried out in the UK, the bulk of the fruits of that
R & D are taxable in the UK even though manufacturing might take place
elsewhere.
I have also looked at the latest accounts of
Astra-Zeneca and GSK, the two largest UK pharmaceutical companies. Both seem happy to be based in the UK and
neither suggest that UK corporation tax rates are a problem. Of course, like any multi-national company,
they do not manufacture solely in the UK.
Most major companies manufacture near where their customers are, so have
a manufacturing facility in several parts of the world.
ROBERT MAAS