FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS?
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FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS?
Philip Hammond seems to be taking his
cue from the Emperor Nero whose reputed response to the sack of Rome was to
pick up his fiddle and amuse himself while ignoring the chaos around him.
On 20 June, Mr Hammond gave his
customary annual speech to the City of London at the Mansion House dinner. He started by thanking the outgoing Governor of
the Bank of England and continued: “And for me, too, there is now just a hint
of uncertainty as to what the future may hold”.
If there was a hint of uncertainty
before the speech, it seems doubtful if there was still one by the time he sat
down. It will be astounding if the
future for him holds anything other than political oblivion.
For his speech gave the appearance of
his being unaware that Theresa May has resigned as Prime Minister, that there
is a leadership contest in progress between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt as to
who should lead the Conservative party, and that both contenders have publicly
stated that the Conservative party is unlikely to have a future unless they
deliver Brexit by 31 October.
This was a speech that firmly nailed his
Remainer colours to the mast. A speech
that made clear that if the Conservative party was headed towards a hard
Brexit, he would vote against it. He did
not actually go as far as to say, “Better a Jeremy Corbyn government and the UK
remaining within the EU, than an independent Conservative led Britain”, but
that was the clear impact of his speech.
How about, for example, “My approach to
Brexit has been shaped by the simple observation that no one, however
passionate their views on Europe, voted to be poorer – so a successful Brexit
is then yes eyes of the electorate must
be a Brexit that protects Jobs, Businesses and living standards” and later
“As I said in the Spring Statement, if
we leave the EU in a smooth and orderly way, the fiscal headroom I have built
up means an incoming Prime Minister will have scope for additional spending or
tax cuts … But there is a caveat: a
damaging “No Deal Brexit” would cause short-term disruption to our economy,
soaking up all the fiscal headroom we have built and more … and while fiscal and monetary policy
interventions could help to smooth our path to a post-No Deal Brexit economy,
both would only be temporary … and neither could prevent the economy being
permanently smaller, than if we leave with a deal. So there is a choice: either we leave with No
Deal … or we preserve our future fiscal space – we cannot do both”.
There are an awful lot of assumptions
here disguised as facts. Firstly, people
voted in the referendum on the question Parliament chose to ask them. It is disingenuous to now say, in effect, I
can ignore what the people voted for as we deliberately asked them the wrong
question. Unlike apparently, Mr Hammond,
I neither possess a crystal ball nor the ability to read the minds of my fellow
citizens. But I suspect that many people
did indeed vote to be temporarily poorer in order to escape the increasing
all-encompassing grip of the EU Commission and its monolithic bureaucracy over
more and more aspects of our lives.
Indeed, I suspect that most realised that leaving the EU would create a
temporary problem, but felt it worthwhile to accept that.
I also suspect many would take issue
with “a damaging No Deal Brexit”. No
one, including Mr Hammond, has the faintest idea of what will happen if we
leave the EU without a deal. Of course,
I suspect that, faced with a choice of Deal or No Deal, most would prefer a
deal provided that it is on vaguely satisfactory terms. But if the signals from Brussels are to be
believed, that choice is unlikely to be available.
Of course the EU is an important market
for EU goods and services. But there is
no reason to believe that without a deal that market will completely dry
up. Nor is there reason to believe that
if imports from Europe falter because we impose high tariffs (which we are
extremely unlikely to do) UK producers will not sell more in the UK. It also needs to be borne in mind that 53% of
UK exports of goods and 75% of exports of services are not to the EU. We currently sell to Asia around 50% of what
we sell to EU countries and Asia, particularly China, is a growing market. And do EU manufacturers actually want to
impose high tariffs against us? We buy
from the EU around 4 times what we sell to them, so a No Deal Brexit will cause
problems for them as well as us.
And if, as many believe, there are huge untapped
markets for British goods outside Europe, it is by no means clear that a Deal
with the EU which commits us to excluding from the UK, say, US goods because
they conform to US rather than EU regulatory standards, is really in our best
interest. I don’t know. But neither does Mr Hammond.
And if Mr Hammond is unequivocably
opposed to a No Deal Brexit, whether a damaging or a non-damaging one, perhaps
he ought to explain why he has spent so much of taxpayers’ money over the last
couple of years preparing for the eventuality.
The second factor that prompted this
article was a parliamentary statement on 25 June by Jesse Norman, the Financial
Secretary to the Treasury. He tells us
that “the government will publish draft clauses for the next Finance Bill … on
Thursday 11 July 2019, along with accompanying explanatory notes, tax
information and impact notes … and other supporting documents”.
This looks like another way to waste
taxpayers’ money. It is a safe bet that,
come the next Budget, it will not be either Mr Hammond or, indeed, Mr Norman,
who delivers it. It is also a fairly
safe bet that whatever Brexit may bring, it will not be “Business as Usual”, so
the next Chancellor of the Exchequer will need to bring in a Budget that
reflects the new circumstances. That
Budget may or may not follow suggestions that Philip Hammond has previously put
forward. It seems more likely than not that
it will not reflect his current intentions.
It is surely not reasonable for Mr Hammond to seek to tie his successor’s
hands by trying to force onto him the many controversial ideas that he has
threatened in the past.
ROBERT
MAAS